Dolphin’s Dock

Electoral College Poll Trends

Now, I’m not a statistician, but to me this says that, for all the hoopla about this being such a close race, it’s really been anything but. McCain hasn’t gained anything that matters since the beginning of the campaign. I think it’s arguable that the “battleground states” have the most undecided voters (though theoretically they could just be the most polarized of the states). If that is the case then the trends on on the graph above seem to indicate that McCain hasn’t made any headway with undecideds at all; if anything, he’s lost them. Both candidates started this race with their base in the bag. Looking at the graph, 7 months later, McCain still has his base, and not much else. Obama on the other hand has been steadily converting undecideds into Obama supporters. Barring some major unexpected event, it’s gonna be an Obama landslide.