Here’s why I think you can expect that to change today; the whole ploy failed epically. McCain hasn’t come off as the knight in shining armor. Instead he’s become the force that destroyed the bill and divided Congress back across party line. He got exactly the opposite of what he wanted. With regards to the debate, he found himself on the wrong side of public opinion with that little maneuver. Something will happen tonight, with or without McCain. If McCain is still sitting around Washington this evening, Obama will get a big boost. First of all, Obama’s actions will be in keeping with what the vast majority of the country think should happen. Secondly, he’ll get the boost of hours of heavily watched television coverage all to himself. If McCain chooses to go debate tonight while an agreement has yet to be reached, McCain will have gone back on his word, further exposed the entire move as nothing more than a political ploy, and still not get the delayed or canceled VP debate he’s after.

The only way McCain wins at all is if a bill is produced and agreed upon today, in time for McCain to make the debate, and he is able to paint himself as the negotiator of it. The agreement will likely be reached today (after all that was the point of the disagreement in the first place), but the urgency to get it done in time for the debates (for McCain’s reputation’s sake) puts the ball squarely in the Democrats’ court. Any bill reached today is likely to be heavily slanted towards the Democrats’ way of thinking. McCain may just find himself not in the role of the great negotiator, but rather the great capitulator.

Update: The debate will go on. Doubt that there are many folks surprised by that.