Dolphin’s Dock

GOP constituents are noticing. It’s not just noticeable by what they’re saying, such as Kathleen Parker’s recent column, but in what they’re not saying. During the Palin fervor that followed her selection, conservatives were quick to brag about how Palin had won them the election and liberals (who were trying to point out all the things that are now making her unpalatable to the population at large) sure were “scared” of her. I haven’t heard anything like that coming from the conservatives I read for awhile now. The silence is deafening. I think it’s safe to say that if McCain could do it again, he wouldn’t have chosen Palin.

That said, it’s not easy to get rid of a VP choice. First of all, for all the independents she puts off, she IS still popular with the Republican base. The only issues they care about is squashing gay rights and abortion, and Palin is squarely in their camp on those issues. Had McCain chosen a less extreme VP candidate in the first place, he may have still won those votes by default (who else are they going to vote for? Obama?), but if he replaces their darling now, it’ll be a slap in the face. It won’t send them running to Obama, but it might well make them stay home or vote for a purely theocratic ticket (with no chance of winning) like the Constitution Party.

Even if he can get the base to stick with him through such a maneuver, there’s not likely to be an immediate polling bump like he received with Palin, regardless of how popular or qualified a potential new choice might be. Any choice he made would be viewed through the lens of being the second choice, the one after the mistake. For a man who has heavily based his campaign on judgment, that could be a devastating blow. Still, if it happened in the next day or two, there might be enough time between now and the election for those feelings to wear off and a brilliant pick could give him a boost towards the end.

There’s a lot to gain and a lot to lose by replacing Palin. On the other hand her very selection in the first place was a great risk. If nothing else, no one can deny that John McCain is willing to gamble (and I’m not talking about all his ties to Indian casinos). He’s willing to take wild risks if the potential payoff is high enough (I’ll leave it to each person to decide if that’s an admirable trait for a presidential candidate, but look how it worked out for Wall St). I still doubt that McCain will drop Palin from the ticket, but I’m not as sure as I once was.

Here’s why I think you can expect that to change today; the whole ploy failed epically. McCain hasn’t come off as the knight in shining armor. Instead he’s become the force that destroyed the bill and divided Congress back across party line. He got exactly the opposite of what he wanted. With regards to the debate, he found himself on the wrong side of public opinion with that little maneuver. Something will happen tonight, with or without McCain. If McCain is still sitting around Washington this evening, Obama will get a big boost. First of all, Obama’s actions will be in keeping with what the vast majority of the country think should happen. Secondly, he’ll get the boost of hours of heavily watched television coverage all to himself. If McCain chooses to go debate tonight while an agreement has yet to be reached, McCain will have gone back on his word, further exposed the entire move as nothing more than a political ploy, and still not get the delayed or canceled VP debate he’s after.

The only way McCain wins at all is if a bill is produced and agreed upon today, in time for McCain to make the debate, and he is able to paint himself as the negotiator of it. The agreement will likely be reached today (after all that was the point of the disagreement in the first place), but the urgency to get it done in time for the debates (for McCain’s reputation’s sake) puts the ball squarely in the Democrats’ court. Any bill reached today is likely to be heavily slanted towards the Democrats’ way of thinking. McCain may just find himself not in the role of the great negotiator, but rather the great capitulator.

Update: The debate will go on. Doubt that there are many folks surprised by that.

The fact that domestic drilling won’t have an effect on our gas prices is probably the only positive to the whole thing. I say it’s a positive because that means it won’t slow our momentum towards alternative energy sources. In 15 years or so, when these rigs are ready to actually start producing oil, we’ll be needing a lot less of it. I suspect the bulk of new cars will be all-electric or at the very least hybrids (by the way, by the time I’m ready to buy a new car again the all-electric Jeep Wrangler will have been out, probably for several years, and I have LONG wanted a Wrangler). Obviously there will still be a lot of gas-powered vehicles on the road, but even those will be the smaller, more efficient variety popular these days. More and more of our power grid is being supplied by wind power, a trend that’s not likely to change, and as other alternative fuel technologies continue to advance, they too will start taking on their share of our power production needs.

So what exactly will off-shore drilling do? Well, it will line the pockets of oil execs (who will in turn line the pockets of the GOP) as they ship off the oil they drill to the developing countries which will still be burning it. So developing countries get oil, the oil execs and the Republican Party get richer, and the American people get what; a bunch of ugly and potentially eco-disastrous oil rigs in our national backyard? Sounds fair? Not to me either. Shame on congressional Democrats for letting it happen (I’m aware they don’t hold enough seats to overturn a veto, at this point, but to not even take it to that point?).