Here’s why I think you can expect that to change today; the whole ploy failed epically. McCain hasn’t come off as the knight in shining armor. Instead he’s become the force that destroyed the bill and divided Congress back across party line. He got exactly the opposite of what he wanted. With regards to the debate, he found himself on the wrong side of public opinion with that little maneuver. Something will happen tonight, with or without McCain. If McCain is still sitting around Washington this evening, Obama will get a big boost. First of all, Obama’s actions will be in keeping with what the vast majority of the country think should happen. Secondly, he’ll get the boost of hours of heavily watched television coverage all to himself. If McCain chooses to go debate tonight while an agreement has yet to be reached, McCain will have gone back on his word, further exposed the entire move as nothing more than a political ploy, and still not get the delayed or canceled VP debate he’s after.

The only way McCain wins at all is if a bill is produced and agreed upon today, in time for McCain to make the debate, and he is able to paint himself as the negotiator of it. The agreement will likely be reached today (after all that was the point of the disagreement in the first place), but the urgency to get it done in time for the debates (for McCain’s reputation’s sake) puts the ball squarely in the Democrats’ court. Any bill reached today is likely to be heavily slanted towards the Democrats’ way of thinking. McCain may just find himself not in the role of the great negotiator, but rather the great capitulator.

Update: The debate will go on. Doubt that there are many folks surprised by that.

The fact that domestic drilling won’t have an effect on our gas prices is probably the only positive to the whole thing. I say it’s a positive because that means it won’t slow our momentum towards alternative energy sources. In 15 years or so, when these rigs are ready to actually start producing oil, we’ll be needing a lot less of it. I suspect the bulk of new cars will be all-electric or at the very least hybrids (by the way, by the time I’m ready to buy a new car again the all-electric Jeep Wrangler will have been out, probably for several years, and I have LONG wanted a Wrangler). Obviously there will still be a lot of gas-powered vehicles on the road, but even those will be the smaller, more efficient variety popular these days. More and more of our power grid is being supplied by wind power, a trend that’s not likely to change, and as other alternative fuel technologies continue to advance, they too will start taking on their share of our power production needs.

So what exactly will off-shore drilling do? Well, it will line the pockets of oil execs (who will in turn line the pockets of the GOP) as they ship off the oil they drill to the developing countries which will still be burning it. So developing countries get oil, the oil execs and the Republican Party get richer, and the American people get what; a bunch of ugly and potentially eco-disastrous oil rigs in our national backyard? Sounds fair? Not to me either. Shame on congressional Democrats for letting it happen (I’m aware they don’t hold enough seats to overturn a veto, at this point, but to not even take it to that point?).

I’m first to admit that I underestimated the ability of the McCain campaign to put together a strategy for most effectively using Sarah Palin. Palin single-handedly (well, actually it was thanks to genius work by her handlers) tied the race. How? They’ve played up her celebrity status (hey, didn’t they attack Obama for that?), while they’ve downplayed her politics and kept whatever substance she has out of the lime-light. She’s been touring the country with McCain, giving the same speech at each site (literally editing only a word here or there to tailor it to the new audience). She hasn’t been allowed to be interviewed at all except grudgingly agreeing to a single soft-ball interview with Charlie Gibson that, by all accounts, was carefully conditioned and regulated by the McCain campaign. Any and all criticism of her on any and all issues has been dubbed sexist. Essentially, the McCain strategy for Palin is to go out and look the part while doing whatever they can to hide whether she actually fits the role.

That strategy was a resounding success. The people have all gone out and bought their Palingotchis. They like her, she’s good-looking (though apparently that’s an insult now. Oh that people were so “insulting” to me) and fun to listen to. But look at the polls, they are a shifting. Now people are starting to realize that while keeping a virtual pet on your keyring is a clever idea, it’s kind of boring if it can’t actually do much more than be a trendy fashion accessory. People are getting tired of Palin for the same reason people got tired of the Tamagotchi: There’s no “there” there. They like the idea of the first female Republican VP pick, but now that they’ve actually got her they’re wanting to see what she can do, and thus far, they’re not seeing much. For all the talk of reform, her politics sure look a lot like George W. Bush’s, and with her being stuck on the same script, there’s little that’s going to change that. In other words, the Palingotchi needs more than just three buttons to be entertaining.

If McCain/Palin wants to win, they need to open the feature set of the Palingotchi. That is, if there are any new features to be opened.